Israel waits for Iran to strike back

After an Israeli airstrike killed 12 Hizballah fighters and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) in Syria on Sunday, Israeli officials are meeting to discuss possible repercussions. 

The Israeli military said Iran and Hizbollah could expect a "very heavy response" if they were to launch a counter-attack. 

An Israeli TV channel said yesterday that the country was on a high state of alert and that "Iron Dome" missile-defence missiles had been deployed to the north of the country in case of rockets being shot from southern Lebanon. 

Retaliation imminent?

The Israeli army cancelled soldiers' leave in preparation for a possible Hizballah attack.

An Israeli TV channel said yesterday that the country was on a high state of alert.

During the 2006 war in Lebanon, Hizballah fired thousands of missiles into northern Israel and many fear a repeat performance.

Israeli military leaders have visited northern Israel, close to the border with Syria, while farmers have been warned not to work on land close to the borders in case of Hizballah raids or rockets.

Preparing for attacks

Some analysts say that a military response from Iran and Hizballah is likely, as Israel's airstrike killed senior military figures including IRC General Allahdadi and the son of a former Hizballah leader.

With Hizballah fighters bogged down in Syria, however, the Lebanese Shia group is unlikely to attempt any high-profile assassinations in response.

Deciding on priorities

Zvi Barel, of the Haaretz newspaper, believes that Iran won't rush into a response. Its current priorities are the negotiations with the West about its nuclear programme and continuing the aid to the Assad regime in Syria with troops and money.

Although Barel said the IRG operated independently of Iran's main political and military apparatus, even in Syria, a decision whether to respond to their deaths of senior officers lies in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  

The Israeli analyst also thinks there is an unspoken agreement between the two parties, where Iran will not retaliate - so long as attacks only target Hizballah in Syria.

Mulling it over

Iran and Hizballah threatening to respond "at the right time and right place" sets both free from any expectations of an immediate counter-attack.

Any attack by Hizballah now would move desperately needed fighters away from the front lines in Syria and into Lebanon.

Tehran is still fighting a war against the Islamic State group in Iraq, and would be unlikely to have enough troops to also open up a new front against Israel without a major escalation in its operations in the region. Such a move would likely have international repercussions for the Islamic Republic.

Iran has recently been enjoying more receptive relations with the United States and Europe, and it would appear that now is the time to iron out differences with the West over its nuclear programme, not ramp up hostilities with one of the West's strongest allies.

This article is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.