Iraq's PM balancing act

Iraq's PM balancing act
In its existential fight against Islamic State, the Baghdad government knows it must tread a careful path between competing Iranian and US interests in the region.
3 min read
18 June, 2015
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi expected in Tehran Wednesday. (Anadolu)

Iraqi Prime Minister, Haidar al-Abadi, on a short visit to Tehran Wednesday met with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials to discuss issues including "international efforts to confront (IS) terrorist gangs," a statement on Abadi's website said.

IS spearheaded an offensive that overran a third of Iraq last year, capturing the city of Mosul and sweeping Baghdad's forces aside. Despite international efforts, the extremist group proved capable of gaining ground when it overran Anbar provincial capital Ramadi last month.

With its forces in disarray last June, Baghdad turned to volunteer forces that are dominated by Iran-backed Shia militias for support, and they have proved instrumental to Iraqi gains against IS. The Iraqi government has become increasingly reliant on the Shia militias as being the predominant force of the 'popular mobilisation' (Hashd al-Shaabi).

This reliance is exploited by Tehran to have a greater say in the future of its neighbour, while the US seeks to empower Sunni tribes to balance the forces on the ground in the long war against IS.

The outcome is a crisis in war strategy and diplomacy.

Fight for Anbar

Last week, the US President approved the deployment of 450 more US military trainers to Iraq. The White House said the forces will join an already 3,100-strong mission to "train, advise and assist" the Iraqi army as well as Sunni tribal fighters.

Obama has ruled out putting combat troops on the ground, fearing it may re-entangle US forces in a war he fought hard to end. Instead his administration has offered air support, arms and training to an amalgam of disparate Iraqi forces. 

The new US training contingent will be based at Taqaddum Air Base, perched between IS-held Ramadi and Fallujah. That puts US non-combat troops within striking distance of IS gunfire. Yet, American officials say it also makes recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters easier.

"There is always a risk whenever we're in Iraq that we could be hit with indirect fire, as we have in the past, that we could be attacked," said senior Pentagon official Elissa Slotkin.

"We felt like we could sufficiently mitigate the risk to make it worthwhile to go out there to perform this important mission. Also, The deployment of 450 US troops into the middle of a contested area may also have an impact on Islamic State's actions," Slotkin added.

Iraq's Sunni Muslim community, likely to be key to victory in Anbar, has yet to mobilise in big number in the fight against IS.

After years of sectarian tensions, there remains a simmering distrust of the Shia-led government in Baghdad, as well as a distrust in the American administration.

In previous campaigns, the US recruited Sunni fighters before leaving them to the mercy of Shiite sectarian rulers.

Obama's Republican adversaries have highlighted the history of foreign policy failures in this case.

"It's a step in the right direction, but as the president admitted the other day, he has no strategy to win. And this [deployment of troops] is another tactical move," said House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner.

"I support the tactical move the president is taking, but where's the overarching strategy?"

Iraqi Prime Minister admits to the critical role Tehran is playing in the war against IS, but he remains on good terms with the American administration knowing that its support is pivotal, despite major disagreements and setbacks. 

In doing so, the Iraqi government allowed, probably unknowingly, American-Iranian clash of interests to be reflected on the ground in Iraq, and the consequences of this arereflected in consecutive setbacks for the Iraqi forces last month.