Israel elections: Palestinians must never back away from ICC

With Israeli elections less than a day away, the last pre-election polls show Binyamin Netanyahu remains citizens' overwhelming favourite to lead the country, but polls also show his party is slipping into second place, losing ground to its Zionist Union rival.

The last two polls project that the Zionist Union - an alliance of Isaac Herzog's Labor Party and Tzipi Livni's Hatnua Party - would win 24 or 25 seats of 120 available, while Likud would win 21.

Netanyahu has declared there was a "real danger" he could lose. He told the Jerusalem Post: "If the gap between Likud and Labor continues to grow, a week from now Herzog and Livni will become the prime ministers of Israel in rotation, with the backing of Arab parties."

To shore-up his fortunes, Netanyahu warned a huge right-wing rally in Tel Aviv on Sunday against a left-wing victory in Tuesday's election.

The left would divide Jerusalem, something he would never do, he said. He promised to continue building in all parts of East Jerusalem. "I am full of appreciation for each and every one of you. You who have come from all over the country: from the coastal cities and central Israel; from the Golan and Jerusalem, our united capital that will never again be divided."

We will preserve a unified Jerusalem - we're building in Jerusalem. That is not the way of the left. - Binyamin Netanyahu

He repeatedly told the 15,000 strong right-wing congregation: "We will preserve a unified Jerusalem - we're building in Jerusalem. That is not the way of the left, or of Tzipi and Bougie," referring to the Herzog-Livni coalition.

"You're applauding, but Tzipi Livni has criticised our decision to build in Jerusalem," Netanyahu added. "This is what the second leftist candidate, Bougie Herzog said: 'I see Jerusalem serving as two political capitals. The capital of a Palestinian state will be in East Jerusalem.' No less. Now they're trying to conceal that, and blur their statements.

"We don't withdraw, even when faced with the greatest pressure," Netanyahu added. "We present the people of Israel's truth to the entire world, like I did at Congress in Washington."

Back to basics

This Israeli election campaign, which has so far ignored any reference to Israel's occupation of the West Bank, or last summer's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza in a 50-day war, fell back into its natural habitat on Sunday - according to Netanyahu - of being about the more brutal enforcer of the occupation or the more vigorous builder of settlements among the contenders.

In Washington, Paris, London and Ramallah, leaders are holding their breath - hoping Netanyahu will lose, and spare them the headache and the embarrassment of his insufferable audacity, and his in-your-face obnoxious flouting of even the most modest international standards.

Even more bizarrely, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has arrested around 50 Palestinians it deems to be "militant Islamists" from Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank.

It feared they might conduct a "terror attack" which could propel Netanyahu's Likud party back into power, according to reports in the Israeli press.

Shamelessly, a spokesman for the PA, Adnan al-Damiri, acknowledged the arrests had been made, although he said they were "made in accordance with the law and not on grounds of political affiliation" - but everyone appears to know better.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported the arrests were ordered by PA President Mahmoud Abbas, and that the majority of those detained belonged to Hamas and were linked to the organisation's military wing.

However, Israeli elections are a strange exercise in political jockeying and are determined by voting blocs, not individual parties.

The party that wins the most votes is not guaranteed to run the government. It needs smaller parties to lend their support to form a coalition - the magic number is 61 seats. This means that even if Netanyahu loses, he can still win. And if that happens, it would not be the first time.

In Israel's 2009 election, Netanayhu's party lost to Tzipi Livni's Kadima. In that tight race, Kadima won 28 seats and Likud 27, but Netanyahu became prime minister because his right-wing bloc won more seats, overall, than Livni's.

Coalition of the willing

More disconcerting for those hoping for a Netanyahu loss, is the fact that Netanyahu has more friends in the smaller parties than either Herzog or Livni.

Shas, United Torah Judaism, Yahad, and Yisrael Beiteinu are in his pocket. Two midsize parties, Kulanu and Yesh Atid - with 11 seats - could also very well go his way, which means Netanyahu should secure the 61 seats needed to form a government.

The Zionist Union, meanwhile, even with the support of the Arab List, is likely only to bring together 55 seats, six short of the magic number.

But if I had my druthers, Netanyahu would continue as prime minister. Here is why: A fourth term as prime minister for Netanyahu would see Israel becoming even more isolated.  

It could enhance the chances of world powers, especially Western ones, and particularly an Obama administration still smarting from Netanyahu's repeated insults, to finally step up pressure on Israel to end its defiance of international law and continuing denial of Palestinians' claim for justice.

Netanyahu is growingly and more brazenly putting Western governments in even more untenable situations.

Netanyahu is growingly and more brazenly putting Western governments in even more untenable situations.

On the one hand they speak of human rights and freedoms, and on the other they hypocritically continue to look the other way while Israel denies the Palestinians the most basic human rights, and continues to conduct unspeakable abuses against a civilian population under military occupation.

False optimism

A break from Netanyahu is a break from the pressure to do something about Israel's ceaseless criminality against the Palestinians, whether in the besieged Gaza Strip or the occupied West Bank, under the pretence that things are changing - although nothing is likely to change under a Herzog/Livni government.

The truth of the matter is that a victory for the Herzog/Livni Zionist Union, and a defeat for Netanyahu would almost certainly result in an injection of false optimism into the dead "peace process".

In this case, the Palestinians would be taken on another endless journey of useless negotiation, pressured by Westerners and Arabs alike to abandon efforts in the United Nations or the International Criminal Court (ICC), which is about to begin to examine its first review of alleged Israeli war crimes on 1 April 2015.

Even worse, the PA would find cause and cover to backtrack from the trouble it found itself in as a result of being basically forced by Netanyahu to undertake its UN / ICC bidding in a bid to stay relevant.

For the Palestinians, the historical record speaks for itself. 

Israel has always built new settlements in the West Bank, whether there is a Labor, Kadima or a Likud prime minister, and regardless of whatever "peace-process" falsehoods they pretend to espouse.

The ceaseless building of settlements, and the augmentation of an apartheid system for the enforcement of Israel's illegal occupation has been the one constant; a reliable cornerstone of Israeli policies through turmoil, war, intifadas, peace-process, no peace-process, Oslo, Arafat, Abbas, Fayyad and any combination thereof.

No matter who wins the Israeli election on Tuesday, the Palestinians should never allow themselves to be sucked back into another saga of endless and futile negotiations.

There is no two-state solution, period, because a two-state solution, in any shape or form has long been dead - killed by Israel's colonisation of the occupied Palestinian territories, a system that remains an ethnic cleansing process, no matter how accelerated or slowed down.

Palestinians should never agree to back away from holding Israel accountable for its crimes, no matter who wins the elections.