What risk of civil war in Egypt?

According to Tunisian philosopher Hassan bin Hassan, the psychological precondition for civil war is a severe social conflict between components of society, whether sectarian or political, in which each side views the other as an evil that must be eliminated.

Egypt today exhibits this precondition.

In the aftermath of the July 2013 coup that deposed former president Mohamed Morsi, hatred between supporters and opponents of the coup has reached fever pitch. Incitement has reached dangerous levels.

Anyone who has watched Egyptian media has witnessed incitement to murder. Popular religious figures do the same in their sermons. The state's security apparatus uses torture and murder in the streets. We also see bloody terrorist operations targeting military and police personnel in Sinai, which have caused many deaths and injuries.

The current political conflict has deep social effects and has spawned bitter hostility - even among neighbours and within families.

The Egyptian media is full of incitement to murder and take revenge on the opposition.

Given these factors, I believe the civil war is not far off.

The military authorities are pushing for it, to justify their oppression and to find a bogeyman to blame in front of their local and international supporters.

In other words, the civil war scenario is likely - unless the Egyptian people take action to rectify the situation and seek consensus and harmony.

Essam Abdul Shafi, a professor of political sciences at the Istanbul-based Roshd University, said President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi had been making dangerous statements that could destabilise the country further.

"When Sisi said 'I will not tie the Egyptian people's hands with the chains of retaliation for the Sinai martyrs', I could only interpret it as a green light for all thugs and dirty apparatuses to start a civil war in Egypt," Shafi said.

Shafi said that everything indicates Sisi has actively sought this scenario, saying the use of force at the Rabaa al-Adwiya and al-Nahdha sit-ins, in which hundreds died, and the arrest of 40,000 people, showed his intentions.

A contrary opinion

Egyptians are afraid, and their infighting is serving the interests of their real enemies.

However, many believe Egypt will not slide into conflict. Psychologist Ahmed Abdallah said Egyptians were "afraid".

"Their infighting is serving the interests of their real enemies," he said. "Rival leaders have the same mentality, history and miserable imagination - while the world is currently collapsing."

However, he added, and considering the Egyptian people's lack of awareness, they may "fight a fierce war based on delusions and myths... Their sons would curse them for this war, because it would be meaningless and pointless, without any real dispute or goal."

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.

This is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.